A decades-old Soviet spacecraft on course to crash into Earth after spending more than five decades in orbit, NASA faces a major budget cut, and Japan moves closer to landing on the Moon. This Week in Space
Out-of-This-World Debris
Every day, pieces of space debris enter Earth’s atmosphere. Most burn up completely—or nearly so—and occasionally, larger fragments reach the surface, typically splashing down in the ocean. But the space debris that was expected to fall this weekend was different: it was a spacecraft specifically designed to survive atmospheric entry—even an atmosphere far harsher than that of Earth.
Kosmos 482 was launched in 1972 as a Venus-bound probe related to the Soviet Union’s Venera program, which aimed to deliver landing probes to the surface of Venus. While one Venera mission eventually succeeded, most—including Kosmos 482—ended in failure. A malfunction during launch prevented it from leaving Earth’s orbit, leaving the spacecraft stranded in a highly elliptical orbit and leading to its reclassification under the Kosmos designation. Over the decades, atmospheric drag gradually lowered its altitude, and after 53 years in space, likely re-entered Earth’s atmosphere on Saturday, May 10th, around the expected time.
The impact was expected around 6:00 AM UTC. However, due to uncertainty in the spacecraft’s trajectory, the reentry window extended up to ten hours before or after the estimated time—and according to some estimates, even longer. As a result, the impact location remained unknown. The spacecraft could have landed anywhere between 52° north and 52° south latitude, covering a vast portion of the Earth’s surface.
The USSR spacecraft, one of the oldest human-made objects still in orbit until its reentry, was a one-meter-diameter metal sphere weighing about 500 kilograms. Although it was originally equipped with parachutes, they were highly unlikely to function after decades in space and the spacecraft’s long-dead batteries. If they didn’t deploy and the object didn’t disintegrate upon atmospheric reentry, it could have hit the ground—or sea—at around 250 km/h, with the impact force of a half-meter-wide meteorite. That meant it could have caused localized damage if it hit a populated area—but not much more than that. The odds of such a hit were very low: over two-thirds of Earth’s surface is ocean, and large areas of land are sparsely populated.
As mentioned, the risk of serious damage was minimal—but the story of Kosmos 482 underscores the ongoing importance of managing space debris and, ideally, preventing it altogether. Today, most missions launched into Earth orbit can be designed to avoid becoming space junk at end-of-life. Spacecraft can either burn up in a controlled reentry or be placed into a distant, safe orbit, minimizing the risk to both Earth and orbital traffic, such as satellites and other spacecraft. While malfunctions will always happen, international prevention efforts could reduce the danger and allow humanity to focus on cleaning up the considerable debris we’ve already left orbiting our planet.
Was expected to impact like a small meteorite. A model of the Venera 7 spacecraft, similar in design to Kosmos 482. | Source: NASA
Cutting Budgets, Changing Course
The U.S. government plans to slash NASA’s budget by nearly a quarter. According to the budget proposal released by the administration late last week, NASA’s funding for 2026 will be $18.8 billion—down from $24.8 billion this year—a 24% cut.
The plan includes an additional $1 billion earmarked for developing crewed missions to the Moon and Mars—but it comes at the cost of broad cuts across other NASA programs. Among the projects expected to be affected are the Mars Sample Return mission, which was recently handed over to private contractors, as well as the Space Launch System (SLS) vehicle and the Orion spacecraft.Although both were originally designed to carry astronauts to the Moon, they are now likely to be canceled following the first crewed landing under the Artemis program, despite the enormous investments already made over the years. NASA’s Lunar Gateway station—intended to orbit the Moon as part of the Artemis architecture—is also expected to be scrapped, according to the proposed budget.
Scientific initiatives are expected to take the brunt of the cuts, including uncrewed space missions and Earth science programs, such as satellite-based climate monitoring. NASA’s operations on the International Space Station are also set to be scaled back, and its educational and science outreach programs are likely to suffer as well.
Space science and advocacy organizations have expressed alarm in a letter to congressional committee leaders, warning that the proposed cuts would affect far more than just the space agency. “The impact extends far beyond mission hardware. These cuts would eviscerate space science research and analysis programs, crippling university departments, research institutions, and NASA centers. It would decimate the nation’s STEM talent pipeline, eliminating vital training opportunities for the next generation of scientists and engineers and likely lead to widespread layoffs within this highly skilled workforce, both in the government and industry.”
Under the new budget, NASA is expected to prioritize the aforementioned crewed missions to the Moon and Mars. A crewed Mars mission has long been a longtime dream of SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk, who holds considerable influence within the current administration. NASA currently lacks human-rated Mars mission capabilities—and none are under development—making it likely that a significant portion of the funding will go to SpaceX, which is developing the massive Starship spacecraft for that purpose. Musk has pledged to launch uncrewed Starship missions to Mars as early as 2026, but as of now, after two years of test flights, the spacecraft has yet to reach Earth orbit.
With NASA’s own Moon launch infrastructure—SLS and Orion—on the chopping block, lunar missions are also expected to be outsourced. Crewed Moon missions are widely regarded as stepping stones towards Mars missions,serving as testing grounds for technologies such as resource extraction, habitat construction, vehicle operation, communication systems, and energy generation. Although Musk stated a few months ago that Moon missions are, in his view, a distraction from the path to Mars, it is now clear that—with NASA no longer able to conduct such missions independently—they, too, will be entrusted to private companies. The almost exclusive contenders are Musk’s own SpaceX and Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin, which is also developing a heavy-lift rocket and crewed lunar landers.
Another long-held vision likely facing cancellation after vast sums have already been invested. An illustration of the Lunar Gateway station, intended to serve as a hub for crewed Moon missions | Source: NASA
Japanese Spacecraft Orbiting the Moon
The Resilience lunar lander, developed by Japanese company iSpace, has successfully entered orbit around the Moon and is expected to attempt a landing in about a month. The lander was launched this January aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, alongside Blue Ghost, another private lunar lander developed by the American company Firefly. While Firefly chose a quicker trajectory to the Moon and achieved a successful landing by March, iSpace opted for a longer, more fuel-efficient path that gradually expanded its orbit around Earth before intercepting the Moon.
Last week, Resilience’s trajectory intersected the Moon’s orbit, and the lander fired its engine for roughly nine minutes to slow down and be captured by the Moon’s gravity. Although the company has not released specific details about the intended orbit, it announced that the landing is targeted for around June 5—or shortly thereafter—in the central region of Mare Frigoris ("Sea of Cold") on the northern part of the near side of the Moon.
Weighing about 340 kilograms at landing, the Resilience lander carries a suite of scientific instruments and experiments from Japanese universities and companies. Its most intriguing payload is Tenacious, a five-kilogram autonomous lunar rover developed by iSpace’s European division. Tenacious is designed to explore the landing area, capture images, and collect samples of lunar soil. These samples will be officially sold to NASA under NASA contracts with companies developing tools and technologies for lunar sample collection. Despite the transfer of ownership, the samples will remain on the Moon for now and will not be physically transported anywhere. The rover will also place a miniature model of a house—designed by a Swedish artist—on the lunar surface.
Short video about the Tenacious rover:
This will be iSpace’s second attempt at a Moon landing. The first, in April 2023, was set to become the world’s first private spacecraft to achieve a soft lunar landing—four years after the crash of Israel’s Beresheet lander. However, the mission ended in failure when the spacecraft crashed during its final descent, likely due to a computer malfunction. iSpace plans to launch its next lander in 2026, followed by another in 2027. The company was also recently selected by Japan’s space agency, JAXA, to assist in developing a lunar-orbiting satellite that will map ice deposits—an essential step toward extracting water and oxygen for future Moon missions.
